Free tool

Trading Compounding Calculator — Realistic Account Growth Projection

Most forex compounding calculators project a smooth "x% per week" curve that no real account ever follows — because they ignore losing trades and drawdowns entirely. This account growth calculator has both: the classic simple compounding formula, and a realistic Monte Carlo mode that shows the median outcome, the p5–p95 range and the drawdown along the way. No login.

Mode & capital

Projection mode

Starting capital ($)

Your strategy (realistic mode)

Win rate (%) 50%

Payoff ratio (average win in R)

Risk per trade (%) 1%

Trades per month

Months

Fixed rate (simple mode)

Gain per period (%)

Period unit

Number of periods

Median final balance

—

the typical simulated outcome

p5 – p95 range

—

90% of simulations finished inside this span

Median max drawdown

—

worst peak-to-trough on the typical path

Chance of finishing in profit

—

simulations that ended above start

Realistic mode simulates 2,000 equity curves trade by trade. Projections describe the simulated distribution at constant statistics — not future results.

Project with your real numbers, not hoped-for ones

The ReziFX Chrome extension captures your planned trades from the TradingView position tool — entry, stop, target, R:R and a screenshot — into a journal that computes your actual win rate, average R and expectancy. Those are the inputs this projection deserves.

Try ReziFX free Expectancy calculator

Growth curve

Median path with the p5–p95 band of 2,000 simulations.

Month	p5	Median	p95

Geometric growth — and why the median is the honest number

Simple compounding is the formula final capital = starting capital × (1 + r)^n: $10,000 at 2% per period for 100 periods becomes 10,000 × 1.02¹⁰⁰ ≈ $72,446. The curve bends upward because every gain is earned on a larger base. That formula is exactly right — for a world with a fixed, guaranteed rate and no losing periods, which is not the world trading happens in.

Realistic mode replaces the fixed rate with your actual trade statistics: each simulated trade multiplies capital by (1 + risk × payoff) on a win and by (1 − risk) on a loss, in random order, 2,000 times over. The result is not one number but a distribution — and it is right-skewed: a few lucky paths compound spectacularly and drag the average up, while the typical path is more modest. That is why this calculator reports the median (half of outcomes better, half worse) plus the p5–p95 range, instead of a single misleading average.

The same simulations also reveal what smooth projections hide: the drawdown on the way. A path that ends up +40% may have been −15% in month four. Judging a growth projection without its expected drawdown is how accounts get sized too aggressively — the range and the median max drawdown belong together.

Frequently asked

How does compounding work in trading?

Compounding means your position size grows with your account: gains are earned on previous gains. Mathematically, final capital = starting capital × (1 + r)^n for n periods at rate r. With percent-based risk sizing, every win multiplies your capital by (1 + risk × payoff) and every loss by (1 − risk), so growth is geometric — but so are drawdowns, which is why realistic projections must include losing trades, not just a smooth average rate.

Is 10% a month a realistic trading return?

Sustained 10% monthly returns would compound to roughly 214% per year — far beyond what most professional funds report over long periods, so treat any such projection with heavy skepticism. Short profitable streaks happen; sustaining them is a different matter. Instead of asking whether a single rate is realistic, run the realistic Monte Carlo mode: it shows the range of outcomes and the drawdowns that come with the strategy that is supposed to produce the return. This calculator makes no promises about future results.

Why is the median outcome lower than the average outcome?

Because compounded returns are right-skewed: a small number of very lucky simulation paths grow enormously and pull the average up, while the typical path grows more modestly. The median — the path where half of outcomes are better and half worse — describes what a typical trader should expect. Judging a strategy by the average of compounded outcomes systematically overstates it.

Should I withdraw profits or keep compounding?

There is no universally correct answer. Keeping profits in the account compounds growth fastest, but also compounds the amount at risk in the next drawdown. Withdrawing regularly locks in gains, reduces the capital exposed to your worst future losing streak, and can be psychologically stabilising — at the cost of slower account growth. Many traders choose a middle path, such as withdrawing a fixed share of profits at intervals. It is a personal risk decision, not a math problem with one solution.

Educational tool. Not financial advice — trading involves substantial risk of loss.