Free tool

Trading Expectancy Calculator — Measure Your Edge in R

Win rate alone is a vanity metric. The trade expectancy formula combines win rate, average win and average loss into one number: what a single trade is worth on average. Enter your stats and get expectancy, an R multiple view, profit factor and break-even win rate — instantly, no login.

Your statistics

Units for win / loss

Win rate (%) 52%

Average win ($)

Average loss ($)

Average win (R) Average loss is fixed at 1R in this mode.

Volume & costs

Trades per month

Commission + fees per trade ($) Round-trip costs: commission, spread, slippage. Optional.

Expectancy per trade (after costs)

$84.00

before costs: $84.00

Expectancy in R

0.56R

per 1R risked, before costs

Profit factor

2.17

gross profit ÷ gross loss

Break-even win rate

33.3%

at your current payoff ratio

Monthly / yearly projection

$3,360 / $40,320

projection at constant statistics — not a promise

Edge eaten by costs

share of gross expectancy lost to fees

Stop guessing your stats

The ReziFX Chrome extension captures your planned trades from the TradingView position tool — entry, stop, target, R:R and a screenshot — into a journal that calculates win rate, average R, profit factor and expectancy for you automatically.

Try ReziFX free Risk of ruin calculator

The expectancy formula, explained

Expectancy per trade = win rate × average win − (1 − win rate) × average loss. Example: a 52% win rate with an average win of 1.8R and an average loss of 1R gives 0.52 × 1.8 − 0.48 × 1 = 0.456R — on average, each trade earns 0.456 times the amount you risked. Costs come straight off that number: expectancy after costs = expectancy − commission and fees per trade.

Two companion numbers complete the picture. Profit factor = (win rate × average win) ÷ ((1 − win rate) × average loss) tells you how gross profits compare to gross losses. The break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + average win ÷ average loss) tells you the minimum win rate your payoff ratio needs — with 1.8R winners you only need to win 35.7% of the time to break even before costs.

Why measure in R-multiples instead of dollars? Because dollar results mix your edge with your position sizing. If you risk a different amount on every trade, the dollar average is dominated by your biggest positions. Expressing every result as a multiple of the amount risked (R) normalises that away: 0.456R means the same thing whether you risk $50 or $5,000 per trade. It is the honest unit for comparing your performance across weeks, symbols and account sizes.

Frequently asked

What is a good trading expectancy?

Any expectancy that stays positive after commissions and fees means the strategy made money per trade over the sample you measured. There is no universal threshold: a scalping system with many trades can live on a small per-trade expectancy, while a swing system needs a larger one to justify fewer trades. Compare your own numbers over time rather than chasing someone else's benchmark — and treat any figure from a small sample with caution.

What is the difference between expectancy and win rate?

Win rate only tells you how often you win, not how much. Expectancy combines win rate with average win and average loss: E = W × avgWin − (1 − W) × avgLoss. A 30% win rate with 3R winners is profitable; a 70% win rate with small wins and large losses can lose money. Expectancy is the number that actually describes your edge.

What is profit factor?

Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss: PF = (W × avgWin) ÷ ((1 − W) × avgLoss). A profit factor above 1 means winners outweighed losers over the measured sample; below 1 means the opposite. It is a ratio, so it says nothing about absolute dollar results or how many trades produced it.

How many trades do I need before I can trust my expectancy?

More than most traders assume. With only 20–30 trades, a few lucky or unlucky outliers can flip the sign of your expectancy. As a qualitative rule, treat numbers from fewer than ~100 trades as a rough sketch and keep re-measuring as the sample grows. A journal that records every trade automatically makes this much easier than a spreadsheet you fill in by hand.

Educational tool. Not financial advice — trading involves substantial risk of loss.