Monte Carlo Trading Simulator — Equity Curves, Drawdown & Risk of Ruin

What Monte Carlo answers that a backtest number can't

A single historical equity curve is one draw from a distribution — the order your wins and losses happened to arrive in. Shuffle the same trades into a different order and the final balance changes little, but the drawdowns change a lot. That is sequence risk, and it is why two traders with identical statistics can have very different account histories. Monte Carlo simulation makes the whole distribution visible: instead of "my strategy makes X%", you see the band of outcomes your numbers actually imply, from the p5 unlucky path to the p95 lucky one.

Note that the median final balance is below the mean. With compounding, a few very lucky sequences grow disproportionately large and drag the average up; the median — the outcome in the middle — is the better "expect this" number. The gap between the two grows with risk per trade: crank the risk slider up and watch the mean sprint away from the median while the p5 path and the drawdown numbers deteriorate. That asymmetry is the whole argument for position sizing.

The risk-of-ruin figure here is sticky: a simulation counts as ruined if it ever touched the ruin threshold, even if it recovered afterwards — because in reality, an account down 50% usually stops trading. The full version inside the ReziFX dashboard runs 100,000 simulations with scenario saving, so you can compare "current me" against "me risking half as much" side by side.